Why dropping Covid-19 while traveling by air can make weather forecasts less accurate

Against the background of the Cov 19 pandemic, all their flights were canceled. To prevent the spread of the virus, countries impose strict travel bans and promote social distance. This means that no air travel is carried out unless this is absolutely necessary. The airline has had great success: EasyJet has stopped all flights, while on US Southwest Airlines the aircraft is only 20% full, and Delta Airlines CEO said the request “is not like anything we have seen”.

Air accidents can affect the aviation industry’s bottom line. This can prevent scientists from making weather forecasts.

The aircraft continues to send data to the forecast center. In total, the aircraft can transmit up to 230,000 observations per day, providing the only regular view of the atmosphere above. The data they collect for air pressure, temperature, cloud height and so on are important parts of the weather forecast. Studies show that observations of this aircraft have reduced weather forecasters’ errors by 15 to 30 percent in six to six hours.

In a press release, the European Center for Meteorological Weather Forecast Center (ECMWM) raised concerns about what it means to lose flight data – believed to be the second after satellite forecasts. The center manages the euro, one of the best (if not the best) weather models in the world. Without data to feed them, the astrologer is basically blind.

From March 3 to 23, the agency said it had received 65 fewer reports from airplanes across Europe and 42 percent fewer reports from airplanes around the world. They said that data from the newly installed satellite would help reduce the decrease in aircraft observations. However, as the Covid-19 pandemic continues, fewer planes can take off, which can affect global forecasts.

According to the US National Weather Service, it is not yet possible to determine the exact impact of this reduction. This body operates a competing meteorological model known as the GFS.

“The reduction is only for certain flights and routes, and although the number of commercial passenger flights is declining, we still get valuable data on night and night plane packages,” said Susan Buchanan, director of public affairs for the National Service for Meteorological Conditions. Gizmodo in an email noted that meteorologists’ predictions need not be less accurate. “While automatic weather reports from commercial aircraft provide very valuable data for forecasting models, we also collect billions of Earth observations from other sources that flow into our models, such as weather balloons, weather monitoring networks and radars, satellites and buoys.”

The agency will soon have access to data from new satellite constellations, which can help to further close the gap. However, in a press release from EZMW, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Information Specialist (who oversees the NWS), Christopher Hill appeared to lack confidence.

“We expect a significant reduction in the availability of data from the US AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay), which will continue in the coming weeks and will likely affect the results of our weather forecast system,” he said.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *